IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.1	#160
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.0	#324
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.7	#146

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.6	#186

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	19.0%	20.2%	12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	14.2	14.9

.500 or above	80.8%	84.3%	60.4%
.500 or above in Conference	82.2%	84.2%	70.8%
Conference Champion	23.0%	24.7%	13.2%
Last Place in Conference	2.1%	1.7%	4.6%

First Four	2.0%	1.9%	2.5%
First Round	18.1%	19.3%	10.7%
Second Round	1.9%	2.1%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	0.6%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 4	4 - 8
Quad 4	15 - 4	19 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2019	303	Jackson St.	W	70-59	85%
Nov 10, 2019	82	@ UCLA	L	71-80	20%
Nov 16, 2019	229	Rice	W	77-70	73%
Nov 20, 2019	74	@ Oregon St.	L	63-73	19%
Nov 27, 2019	270	Portland St.	W	77-68	79%
Nov 29, 2019	269	Grambling St.	W	75-66	79%
Dec 03, 2019	197	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	65-66	47%
Dec 07, 2019	135	@ Texas Arlington	L	64-69	35%
Dec 14, 2019	226	@ Southern Utah	W	72-71	52%
Dec 16, 2019	335	@ Idaho St.	W	74-65	78%
Dec 20, 2019	346	Southern	W	74-57	93%
Dec 22, 2019	304	Merrimack	W	74-63	84%
Dec 29, 2019	202	@ Louisiana	L	75-76	48%
Jan 08, 2020	327	@ Cal Poly	W	72-64	74%
Jan 11, 2020	289	Long Beach St.	W	78-68	81%
Jan 19, 2020	183	@ Hawaii	L	67-68	47%
Jan 22, 2020	208	Cal St. Northridge	W	78-72	69%
Jan 25, 2020	296	UC Riverside	W	70-59	82%
Jan 30, 2020	208	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	75-74	50%
Feb 01, 2020	289	@ Long Beach St.	W	75-71	64%
Feb 06, 2020	183	Hawaii	W	70-65	66%
Feb 08, 2020	106	UC Irvine	L	66-67	48%
Feb 13, 2020	266	@ UC Davis	W	67-64	60%
Feb 20, 2020	213	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	70-69	51%
Feb 22, 2020	266	UC Davis	W	70-61	77%
Feb 27, 2020	296	@ UC Riverside	W	67-62	66%
Feb 29, 2020	106	@ UC Irvine	L	63-70	28%
Mar 05, 2020	213	Cal St. Fullerton	W	73-67	69%
Mar 07, 2020	327	Cal Poly	W	75-61	87%
Projected Record						18 - 11	10 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.2	1.5	4.2	6.2	6.1	3.8	1.0		23.0	1st
2nd									0.0	0.5	3.2	7.0	7.6	3.7	0.7				22.8	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.7	4.2	7.2	4.4	1.2	0.1					17.7	3rd
4th							0.0	0.7	3.8	5.4	2.6	0.3	0.0						12.8	4th
5th						0.0	0.6	3.0	3.8	1.5	0.2								9.1	5th
6th					0.0	0.5	2.0	2.9	1.0	0.0									6.5	6th
7th				0.0	0.5	1.6	1.8	0.6	0.0										4.4	7th
8th			0.0	0.4	1.0	0.9	0.2	0.0											2.6	8th
9th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1													1.1	9th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.8	3.0	4.7	7.1	9.5	11.7	13.3	13.2	12.9	10.1	6.9	3.8	1.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	1.0		1.0
15-1	100.0%	3.8		3.6	0.2
14-2	89.4%	6.1		4.9	1.3	0.0
13-3	62.1%	6.2		3.8	2.2	0.2	0.0
12-4	32.4%	4.2		1.7	2.0	0.5	0.0
11-5	11.2%	1.5		0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.4%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	23.0%	23.0		15.2	6.4	1.2	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	1.0%		60.9%	56.1%	4.8%	11.2			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.4		11.0%
15-1	3.8%		55.5%	54.1%	1.4%	12.8								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	1.7		3.0%
14-2	6.9%		44.6%	44.3%	0.3%	13.4											0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	0.8	0.5	0.1	3.8		0.6%
13-3	10.1%		35.0%	34.9%	0.1%	14.0												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.4	0.9	0.2	6.5		0.1%
12-4	12.9%		25.6%	25.6%		14.5													0.1	0.5	1.0	1.3	0.5	9.6
11-5	13.2%		18.4%	18.4%		14.9													0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	0.7	10.7
10-6	13.3%		13.0%	13.0%		15.3														0.1	0.1	0.8	0.8	11.6
9-7	11.7%		8.6%	8.6%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	10.7
8-8	9.5%		7.4%	7.4%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	8.8
7-9	7.1%		4.0%	4.0%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.3	6.8
6-10	4.7%		3.8%	3.8%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	4.5
5-11	3.0%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.0	3.0
4-12	1.8%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
3-13	0.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
2-14	0.2%																							0.2
1-15	0.1%																							0.1
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		19.0%	18.8%	0.1%	14.2			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.7	3.4	4.5	4.9	4.0	81.0		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	6.3		1.9		30.2	5.7	28.3	3.8		26.4	1.9		1.9